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ACEC’s Chief Economist Thomas Grogan shares insights from Bloomberg’s “Washington’s AI Moment” event

Recently, I attended a symposium in Washington featuring a panel comprised of Bloomberg reporters discussing the proliferation of AI and how organizations need to prepare and adapt to the changing tech landscape.

The discussion’s title—“Washington’s AI Moment: The Economic Stakes of Getting It Wrong”—says it all: AI is no longer just a technology story. It’s also an economic, policy, and infrastructure story.

For engineering design firms, that distinction matters more than most realize.

A Fragmented Policy Landscape Meets a Global Arms Race

At the federal level, the current approach to AI policy is largely pro-growth, driven in part by a perceived technological competition with China. But beneath that national posture lies a growing complication: fragmentation.

Today, more than 2,700 AI-related regulations are emerging across all 50 states. This creates a challenging operating environment, as companies face inconsistent regulatory frameworks, rising compliance complexity that threatens to slow innovation, and growing uncertainty in capital allocation.

At the same time, the rise of AI-focused political action committees signals a shift. The private sector is no longer observing from the sidelines. It is actively shaping policy outcomes.

For engineering firms, this is a critical signal. Policy is doing more than simply setting rules. It is shaping where and how infrastructure gets built.

AI, Trust, and the Expanding Role of Regulation

Beyond economic competition, policymakers are grappling with AI’s societal implications, particularly around elections, privacy, and public trust. And while these issues may seem distant from engineering, they are not.

As trust in digital systems becomes a policy priority, demand will grow for secure, resilient, and transparent infrastructure.

The Economic Fault Lines: Labor and Inflation

The panel converged on two economic variables that will define AI’s trajectory: employment and inflation.

Labor disruption is no longer theoretical. Companies are reporting measurable workforce changes as AI scales. This raises questions about wages, job displacement, and how quickly policy can respond.

AI Is Coming for Professional Services—Including Engineering

AI will reshape how engineering work is done, changing staffing models, skill needs, and career pathways. Entry-level roles are particularly exposed, while demand grows for systems thinkers and digitally fluent engineers. Technology is beginning to automate core workflows across professional services, with tasks such as drafting, documentation, modeling, and coordination increasingly supported by AI.

The implication goes beyond just productivity. It signals a profound structural change.

From Productivity Gains to Margin Pressure

Productivity gains may initially expand margins, but these gains may prove ephemeral. As more and more tasks are outsourced to AI—or are perceived as being outsourced to AI—clients could expect cost reductions, placing pressure on traditional billing models and intensifying competition. It is easy to envision a scenario where what begins as efficiency quickly becomes margin compression.

The Infrastructure Surge—and Its Hidden Risks

AI is driving demand for data centers, power, and materials.

This creates inflationary pressure, supply constraints, and grid challenges. Yet demand remains strong, with new capacity quickly absorbed.

These points go to the heart of a dual reality for engineering firms with regard to AI as both opportunity and disruption. Demand is soaking up new capacity the moment it comes online. That’s one side of the coin. But the other side is that the same technology fueling that demand is also rewriting how the work gets done. Engineering firms are living the dual reality of external boom and internal disruption. The firms that treat this as just an opportunity, or as just a threat, will get it wrong. Firms must navigate both.

The Risk of Getting It Wrong

The firms that win the next decade will be the ones with leaders who read the room first. That means tracking policy signals before they become mandates. It means aligning with AI-driven demand, not resisting it. It means investing in delivery transformation now and not waiting until clients force their hand. And it means rethinking our workforce strategy from the ground up. But perhaps most important, it means getting in the policy conversation. The leaders who help define and shape the rules will have an edge over those who merely follow them.

This is a defining moment for our industry. Misread it, and we could be looking at underbuilt infrastructure, runaway costs, and margins that may be a long time recovering. AI will determine not just what gets built, but how engineering firms themselves are built.

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Date

March 23, 2026

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