ACEC Research Institute Lightning Poll Shows Softening Optimism Amid Inflation and Tariff Concerns 

The ACEC Research Institute has released the results of its most recent Business Climate Lightning Poll, capturing mid-quarter sentiment from engineering firm executives. Conducted between September 22–29, 2025, with 634 respondents, the survey reveals a cooling of optimism compared to the previous quarter, as firms continue to face mounting concerns over inflation, tariffs, and the potential for recession. 

The last full Engineering Business Sentiment Survey covering the third quarter of 2025 can be read here.  

“While engineering firms continue to demonstrate resilience, the broader economic environment is clearly beginning to weigh on executive sentiment,” said Joe Bates, senior research consultant at the ACEC Research Institute. “The rise in inflationary pressure and persistent concerns over tariffs underscore the challenges firms face as they plan for the coming months. At the same time, the elevated risk of recession highlights the need for careful strategic planning across the industry.” 

Key Findings 

• Decline in U.S. Economic Optimism: Confidence in the U.S. economy dropped sharply, with the Net Rating sliding to +36, down from +50 in Q3 2025—the highest rating ever recorded. This marks a return to levels seen throughout 2024.
• Industry Conditions at Four-Year Low: Sentiment regarding the overall health of the engineering and design services industry decreased to a Net Rating of +71, seven points lower than last quarter and the lowest recorded since the survey’s inception four years ago.
• Firm Finances Remain Strong: Despite broader economic headwinds, firm-level financial conditions remain resilient, posting a Net Rating of +85, consistent with historic highs.
• Inflation Concerns Intensify: Inflation emerged as an increasingly urgent issue, with concern rising to a Net Rating of +54, compared to +44 in Q3 2025. This represents one of the sharpest recent increases in economic worry.
• Tariffs Pose Emerging Challenge: Tariff concerns continue to weigh on firms, though to a lesser extent than inflation. The Net Rating rose modestly to +28, following a +22 reading in Q3 2025. While lower than the +49 spike in Q2 2025, tariffs remain a notable pressure point for firms.
• Recession Risk Remains Elevated: The perceived likelihood of a recession in the next six months increased to 45%, the second-highest reading in two years, behind only Q2 2025 (54%).