Economist Basu Forecasts Recession Due to Uncertainty Over 2020 Election

Fall Conference / Market Forecast

October 15, 2019

Economist Basu Forecasts Recession Due to Uncertainty Over 2020 Election

Economist Anirban Basu told attendees at the ACEC Fall Conference today that even though the U.S. economy is strong, he is forecasting a recession by the third or fourth quarter of 2020.

Basu, who is CEO of the Sage Policy Group, said that almost all of important parts of the economy continue to do well, including strong GDP growth, low inflation, low unemployment, strong wage growth. At the same time, certain fissures are widening, such as the inverted yield curve, rising income inequality, low workforce participation.

Basu said, however, that the biggest danger to the economy in 2020 will be the upcoming presidential election. President Trump and the Democratic candidates have such polar opposite policy agendas that a lot of businesses and individual investors may pull their money out of the market in 2020 while they wait for the election outcome. 

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